Election Uncensored

Before we dig in on the border crisis, we begin today’s issue by highlighting some of your opinions…

“Inflation hurts poor people on fixed incomes,” says Nick I., “like those who live on Social Security. It gets harder every day.”

As for our post-tariffs issue on Wednesday, David W. says: “Trump does not get credit for ‘averting a trade war’ that he started and then decided to back away from.”

Another contributor writes: “I must say, your article about COVID and supply-chain issues was the most balanced and accurate article you’ve written yet on U.S. inflation.

“COVID, supply-chain issues — and spending by the Trump and Biden administrations — caused inflation.”

Finally, we hear from Pete C.: “Last year, 43 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the Canadian border; 2,193 pounds were seized at the Mexican border.

“I can understand Trump’s complaints about Mexico, but Canada? Really? The leading trading partner of the middle and upper United States is Canada. Messing with Canada is beyond stupid.

“If I were Canada I would say: ‘We will stop the flow of fentanyl into the US if you stop the flow of guns into our country.’ Which is a vastly worse problem.”

Our reader’s comment provides a neat segue into today’s topic…

Your Rundown for Monday, February 10, 2025...

The Cost of the Opioid Crisis

The opioid crisis continues to devastate the United States, with staggering new data revealing the epidemic cost the nation $2.7 trillion in 2023 alone.

This figure, detailed in a study by the Council of Economic Advisers and obtained by Fox News Digital, underscores the immense toll of opioid addiction, driven largely by fentanyl — a synthetic opioid primarily originating in China and smuggled into the U.S. through Mexico.

The study attributes this astronomical cost to several factors, including…

• $1.11 trillion from loss of life due to 74,702 opioid-related deaths in 2023
• $107 billion in healthcare expenses tied to addiction treatment.
• Additionally, $107 billion was lost due to reduced labor productivity
• While opioid-related crime added another $63 billion to the economic burden.

These figures dwarf even pessimistic estimates of economic losses from tariffs, highlighting the crisis’s unparalleled impact.

The study’s findings contrast with previous reports. For instance, a 2019 analysis estimated the opioid epidemic cost $2.5 trillion over four years (2015–2018). The 2023 figure reflects not only inflation adjustments but also a sharp rise in fatalities and addiction rates.

President Trump has long prioritized combating this epidemic, leveraging strategies like tariffs on Mexico, China and Canada to tighten border security and curb fentanyl trafficking.

But critics argue these tariffs could raise costs for American consumers. Trump’s administration, however, maintains that saving American lives far outweighs such concerns. Trump's actions aim to address what his administration calls an “extraordinary threat” to American society.

While critics focus on potential economic downsides of Trump’s tariffs, the study makes clear that failing to act against this crisis is far costlier — both financially and in human lives.

The question remains: As America grapples with these dual challenges — rising inflation exacerbated by tariffs and the devastation of fentanyl — can policymakers balance the economic pressures on households with the urgent need to curb a crisis that’s tearing apart communities and costing trillions?

Market Rundown for Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.55% to 6,080.

Oil is up 1.25% to $71.90 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 1.40% to $2,927.60 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 2% to $98,295.

The roots of current U.S. inflation can be traced back to unprecedented economic measures, spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations.

Think back to 2020. The pandemic-hit economy was tanking, and the federal government — under Trump — stepped in with massive stimulus packages.

Then, when Biden took office, the spending continued.

Even former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted this year that the Biden stimulus added “a little bit” to the inflation fire. (That’s an understatement.)

But she also pointed to the global supply-chain chaos as a major culprit.

Classic economics: Too much money chasing too few goods, and prices go up. All that stimulus money pumped up demand, but supply chains were wrecked.

It’s easy, of course, to point fingers now. But at the time, the goal was to keep the financial system from collapsing.

The thing is, inflation isn’t just some abstract number. It’s hitting people where it hurts, especially when it comes to housing.

Your Rundown for Friday, February 7, 2025...

A Scary Housing Market Signal

I saw a report yesterday that mortgage delinquencies are on the rise, especially among first-time homebuyers with FHA loans and veterans with VA loans.

Apparently, serious delinquencies are at a two-year high. That’s a scary signal.

Marina Walsh of the Mortgage Bankers Association says people are dealing with “inflationary pressures, lower personal savings rates, natural disasters” — basically a perfect storm of financial stressors.

And Americans with government-backed loans seem to be feeling the pinch most.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however. Foreclosures are still low because of forbearance programs. Plus, many homeowners have built up equity in their homes.

Still, the rise in delinquencies shouldn’t be ignored.

So, what’s the big picture? Simple: Inflation isn’t a quick fix. And it’s not a red versus blue issue either.

Instead, it’s a tangled web that started with emergency COVID measures, and it’s still unraveling today.

Moving forward, Trump’s administration will need to walk a tightrope, supporting the economy without pouring more fuel on the inflation fire. Which requires smart fiscal policies.

That said, the complex issue of inflation transcends politics and political parties. And it impacts everyday Americans in ways that hit uncomfortably close to home.

Market Rundown for Friday, Feb. 7, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.10% to 6,100.

Oil is up 0.70% to $71.09 for a barrel of West Texas crude.

Gold is up 0.30% to $2,885.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 1.5% to $98,100.

President Donald Trump has temporarily averted a trade war with at least two of America’s top three trade partners…

Source: Al Jazeera

The saga began on February 1, 2025, when Trump announced significant new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, citing national security concerns related to drug trafficking and illegal immigration.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, February 5, 2025...

Trump’s Unwinnable War Is Still Worth Fighting

Trump’s initial plan includes a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

And the president invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, declaring a national emergency due to the “significant threat posed by illegal immigrants and lethal drugs, including fentanyl.”

“It is my duty as President to ensure the safety of all Americans,” Trump says, emphasizing his focus on fulfilling campaign promises.

• President Trump aims, in fact, to hold Mexico, Canada and China accountable for their alleged failure to stem the flow of contraband drugs and precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production into the U.S.

But Trump agreed to delay the tariffs for one month following last-minute negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

The decision came after both leaders committed to enhance border security in order to combat drug trafficking and illegal immigration. (There’s been no reprieve for China, by the way; tariffs went into effect yesterday.)

That said, Trump’s announcement on Saturday sent shockwaves through the global economy: Stock prices declined on Monday morning as analysts warned of potential price hikes and economic slowdown.

Economists warn that implementing such tariffs could lead to increased costs for American consumers and businesses, many of whom are already grappling with high inflation.

Plus, the trading relationship between the U.S., Mexico and Canada supports over 17 million jobs.

The next month will be crucial in determining whether a long-term solution can be reached or if America's top trade partners will face unprecedented tariffs, potentially reshaping the global economic landscape.

And while it's true that Trump’s war against fentanyl might be unwinnable in the traditional sense — dealers will find alternative routes  — it’s still a battle worth fighting.

Admittedly, the root causes of drug use are challenging to address. But combatting the influx of fentanyl could 1) save lives and 2) buy time for real solutions.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.45% to 6,035.

Oil is down 1.15% to $71.85 for a barrel of WTI.

The price of gold’s at an all-time high: up 0.65% to $2,895.60 per ounce.

But Bitcoin’s down 0.50% to $98,200.

“I would choose Governor Ron DeSantis as Vice President should JD Vance move up to President,” writes contributor Shirley W. “Tulsi Gabbard for VP,” adds another.

Rick S. says: “Potential VP pick? Vivek Ramaswamy: Vance already knows him. He’s articulate, conservative and seems credible. That’s hard to find in a politician.”

As for Friday’s inflation-centric topic, Jacqueline K. writes: “I'm sorry, but you’re way off. Trump has been in office for two weeks. How do you expect inflation to go down in that amount of time?”

And John B. takes issue with Friday’s stats: “You trust anything from YALE! You trust the AP! Trump’s inauguration was 14 days ago. He can’t just wave a magic wand and make inflation go away.”

Then there’s this inflation snapshot from Edward S…

“I own a daycare center in a small town in southern Illinois and have been in business for 30 years. We have maxed out the amount that we can charge for our services and still keep the doors open. 

“Our average customers — young families — are having trouble making ends meet. Unfortunately, I do not see any relief in the foreseeable future.

“The squeeze is definitely real and getting worse by the day. The supposed strong state of the economy is just a mirage.

“Heaven help us all.”

Finally, Denise W. says: “Weekly grocery bill is $200-300 per week for my husband and me. We’re retired, but not worried. So far, we’re doing OK financially. I send checks to a local food bank to help others.”

Which leads to our topic today…

Your Rundown for Monday, February 3, 2025...

Food Insecurity 9-1-1

Food banks nationwide are witnessing a surge in demand — not from the unemployed, but from working Americans grappling with the rising cost of living.

Emily Engelhard of Feeding America describes this as “a new era of food insecurity,” emphasizing that it's not an unemployment issue but a consequence of soaring prices.

• Over the past five years, grocery prices have skyrocketed nearly 30%, matching the increase seen over the 15 years before the pandemic.

Now, from Arizona to Washington D.C., food banks are breaking records in meal distribution.

The Flagstaff Family Food Center, for instance, now serves over 40,000 meals monthly… marking a fourfold increase from 2015.

In the nation’s capital, the Capital Area Food Bank distributed 64 million meals last fiscal year… with the sharpest increases in food insecurity among households earning $100,000-$150,000.

And food insecurity has dire consequences on health and well-being:

• It increases the risk of chronic conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, hypertension and obesity.

• Food insecurity strains healthcare systems, leading to increased hospitalizations and healthcare costs.

• It promotes higher rates of depression, anxiety and suicidality.

• Children face developmental challenges, including cognitive delays and behavioral problems.

• Beyond health, food insecurity affects economic productivity by reducing workforce participation and educational outcomes.

Overall, the ongoing erosion of purchasing power continues to drive many, including middle-income and educated individuals, to seek assistance from food banks.

And food insecurity creates a cycle of poor health and economic hardship that can persist across generations.

Market Rundown for Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 1.60% to 5,970.

Oil is up 2.35% to $74.25 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.40% to $2,847.50 per ounce.

But Bitcoin’s down 3%, just under $95,000 at the time of writing.

Donald Trump may have won the presidency at the kitchen table.

But Americans are still struggling to put food on it.

Despite his promises to vanquish inflation, the financial squeeze on households shows no signs of letting up.

In fact, some experts warn that Trump’s policies might inadvertently fan the flames of rising prices.

And the average American's wallet is undoubtedly feeling the pinch:

• A whopping 59% of people can't cover a $1,000 emergency expense with savings, up from 56% last year, according to Bankrate.

That’s because everyday Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, with inflation and high interest rates gobbling up our ability to save.

So let’s talk numbers…

Your Rundown for Friday, January 31, 2025...

Trump’s Epic Task

Since January 2021, egg prices have skyrocketed 148%... ground beef is up 41%... and even a humble loaf of bread costs 24% more.

It's no wonder then that 73% of folks blame inflation, high interest rates or income changes for their savings struggles.

Albeit, on day one, Trump issued an executive order for “emergency price relief.”

His plan? Slash housing costs, cut healthcare expenses and ditch climate policies that jack up fuel and food prices.

But economists are skeptical. Trump's policies aimed at lowering prices might just do the opposite.

• Proposed tax cuts could boost consumer spending and, you got it, trigger more inflation.

• Trump’s mass deportations might lead to labor shortages, pushing wages (and prices) higher.

• And his proposed tariffs could actually drive up consumer prices.

Tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and at least 10% on all imports could hit American wallets hard.

And it's not just imports — domestic production could feel the squeeze too, as U.S. factories often rely on imported materials.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates Trump’s tariffs could initially drive up consumer prices by 5.1%.

The bottom line? Trump himself admits it's “very hard” to bring prices down once they’re up!

Now, most Americans question Trump’s ability to bring down costs…

A survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds only about 2 in 10 Americans are extremely or very confident Trump can lower grocery, housing or healthcare expenses.

With almost 60% of U.S. households unable to cover a $1,000 emergency, inflation isn’t just an abstract economic indicator.

It’s a kitchen table crisis.

As Trump commences the first 100 days of his second term, the question remains: Can he turn campaign promises into reality?

Or will his policies serve up an even bigger helping of inflation?

Market Rundown for Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

The S&P 500 futures are up 0.53% to 6,071.17.

Oil’s up 0.18% to $72.86 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.17% to $2,827.80 per ounce.

And Bitcoin’s down 0.08% to $104,635.70.

Election Day has finally arrived.

To keep you ahead of the curve, below is our final pre-election analysis for the 2024 elections based on available data from late on Monday, November 5. It is an update on our detailed analysis from the November issue of Strategic Intelligence distributed on November 1 using new information gathered over the past four days.

In addition to the very latest analysis this morning, I will be conducting a LIVE post-Election Day briefing with my publisher tomorrow at 11 am ET. We will discuss the election results and what to expect going forward. You’ll receive access information later today for that event, so please keep an eye on your inbox for instructions on how to join us. Hope to see you there.

Our core election forecast has not changed. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to be president. Donald J. Trump will win election as president by an electoral vote count of 312-226 in our conservative estimate, and perhaps do as well as 329-209 in a slightly more aggressive estimate where Trump wins Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire.

My Senate forecast is that Republicans will re-take the Senate with a solid 54-46 majority, up from their current minority status of only 49 Senate seats. My House forecast with 435 seats up for grabs is more speculative (due to scarce polling data), but my best estimate is that the Republicans will hold the House and increase their lead slightly to 225-210, up from the current margin of 220-212 (with 3 vacancies). That will give the Republicans a solid working majority.

This outcome would leave the Republicans in charge of the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives with control of future nominees for Supreme Court Justices – a clean sweep.

The Final Polling

Here’s a quick update on the polls as of late Monday, November 4. This information is subject to all the caveats we have expressed over the past few months including small sample sizes, skews toward Democratic participants, large groups who do not respond to polls and many other statistical deficiencies that increase the margin of error or tilt the result to one party or the other. Still, it’s the best information available; just take it for what it’s worth:

RealClear Politics Poll Averages

The National Average is interesting, but it’s an irrelevant beauty contest because presidents are not elected nationally; they are elected state-by-state through the Electoral College process.

Compared to the RealClear Politics averages on October 30, Harris caught up to Trump in the National Average, increased her lead in Michigan and edged ahead of Trump in Wisconsin. Harris also made the race closer in Pennsylvania and Georgia, although Trump remains in the lead. Trump expanded his leads in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

Trump’s best path to victory consists of holding his 2020 states (including North Carolina) and flipping Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Right now, Trump is on track to do exactly that. If Trump takes those states, he does not have to win in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, although he may well do so.

It’s Trump’s race to lose. Still, the polls are so close that no one should be shocked if Kamala pulls out a tight victory.

There is also encouraging news for Trump coming from other reliable pollsters in addition to the RealClear Politics average. One of these is the Trafalgar Group, which has one of the best track records in predicting the outcome of elections since 2016. Here are the latest results as of Monday night from Trafalgar Group:

Comparing Trafalgar to RealClear Politics, we see that Trump is leading in all seven battleground states in Trafalgar while Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan in RealClear. Trump has much bigger leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina in Trafalgar compared to RealClear. But the race is tighter in Nevada according to Trafalgar. In all events, Trump’s path to victory which requires Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania is solid in both polls.

Another prominent pollster with the best prediction record in 2020 is AtlasIntel. Their final 2024 poll released on November 2 shows Trump leading in all seven battleground states.

Those winning margins for Trump are not only larger than what Trafalgar shows (with the exception of Wisconsin), they are mostly outside the poll’s margin of error, which is a relatively low 2.0%. Again, these results put Trump well on his way to victory.

In particular, Michigan could flip for Trump because the large Arab-American community near Detroit may simply not vote (or vote for third-party candidate Jill Stein) in protest against Biden-Harris policies favoring Israel in the Middle East war.

Harris leads heavily among women, while Trump has an equally large lead with men. Whether this plays a decisive role in the outcome or not depends on turnout. If women turn out in far greater numbers than men, then Trump’s lead among men is diluted and Harris could be on a path to victory. If enough men show up, even on Election Day, then Trump should win.

Late Narratives Won’t Change Many Minds

A few other narratives filled up the news cycle over the past week. One was the GarbageGate affair. It began during Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on October 27 when a relatively unknown comic in a warm-up role told a bad joke about Puerto Rico being “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean.” For two days, this dominated the news and was used by Kamala Harris to back up the usual claims of “racism” by Trump and to appeal to Latino voters.

The publicity was huge, but the impact was minimal. Trump maintained his share of the Latino vote, the largest share of any Republican in history.

Then the affair turned 180 degrees when Joe Biden offered up his own assessment. In a video link speech to a Latino network, Biden said, “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.” In a single sentence, Biden called Trump supporters – about half the voters in the country – garbage. The reaction dwarfed anything seen in response to the original bad joke.

Most Americans took offense and were outraged at Biden’s stupidity (although it was consistent with his mumbling and dementia we’ve see on display for years). Trump turned it into a joke by driving a garbage truck and wearing a fluorescent sanitation worker vest to a televised rally. Megan Kelly piled on by fashioning a Halloween dress out of a garbage bag. The fun continued for days with the Republicans turning lemons into lemonade with the help of Joe Biden.

Then matters took a serious turn. The White House tried to cover up Biden’s comments by altering an official transcript to say “supporter’s” instead of “supporters.” The added apostrophe made it appear that Biden was talking about a single supporter’s garbage rather than calling all Trump supporters garbage.

Very few voters bought this explanation. The original comment was on video and Biden’s body language and inflection clearly pointed to “supporters.” Then a whistleblower came forward with evidence that the official transcript had in fact been altered by the White House staff. The matter is now under investigation. Leave it to Joe Biden to turn a political embarrassment into a criminal offense.

In truth, none of the bad joke, the Biden insult, nor the mini scandal in the White House are likely to change many minds. The timing is a good reminder that as many as 80 million Americans had already voted by the end of October and only about 30 million remained to vote on Election Day. For all practical purposes, the election is already over – we just won’t know the winner until late on Election Day or early Wednesday morning.

Late-Breaking Trends

Registration totals show that Republicans have registered considerably more new voters than Democrats. For example, 2020 registration totals in Pennsylvania favored Democrats by 996,466. In 2024, that advantage was down to 410,509. That difference represents a gain of 585,957 Republicans in this election compared to 2020. The Biden margin of victory in 2020 in Pennsylvania was only 80,000 votes. If turnout reflects that change in registrations, Republicans will be well-positioned to win Pennsylvania.

Early voting distributions show more Republicans voting than Democrats. This could be a matter of cannibalizing Election Day voters (in other words, a timing difference and not a difference in total votes), but that seems unlikely. Other evidence showing increased turnout for Republicans would be consistent with increased early voting.

Finally, turnout in rural areas that favor Republicans is quite high, while turnout in urban areas that support Harris is lagging. Harris will win most big cities, but her urban winning margin may not be enough to defeat the Republican rural margin. Harris has her supporters, but their enthusiasm level appears to be low.

Anything else of importance? Oh, yeah. Joe Rogan, a podcaster with the largest audience of any host in the world endorsed Trump late Monday night. Can’t hurt.

And by the way, the traditional midnight vote early this morning in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, who has cast the very first votes for president since 1960? It was a tie, 3 votes each for Trump and Harris. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 5 votes to zero. A prelude for things to come? We’ll see.

Now you have all the information available, and we have more than enough on which to base our forecast. The rest is up to you. It will be close, so your participation is important.Please vote and keep an eye out for an email later today giving access to my post-Election Day LIVE briefing that is being held tomorrow at 11 am ET. See you then.

Welcome to our latest update on Election 2024. If you joined our service recently, we welcome you to the best in financial analysis and look forward to a long lasting and profitable relationship.

Election Day is only a month away. As Donald Trump gathers momentum in the last month of the campaign, the race is tight and the outcome uncertain.

That said, my model puts weight on the more accurate polls, demographic trends and anecdotal evidence. Based on that model, my forecast remains that Trump will win the election.

The more accurate polls show Trump with substantial leads in most key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada) and extremely close in the remaining battleground states (Michigan, Wisconsin).

If Trump sustains those leads, he will win the Electoral College 287 to 251. If Trump were also to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, we’re looking at a historic Trump Electoral College landslide of 325 to 213. (For an in-depth look at the current polling numbers, please review our latest monthly issue here).

What has accounted for this recent momentum for the Trump campaign? The real reason why is going to shock you. That’s why I’m conducting a LIVE briefing with my publisher tomorrow morning, October 11 at 10 am ET to discuss the race and the latest in a major story that has the election swinging towards Trump.  Drop everything and be sure to join us by for this special briefing. Keep an eye on your inbox tomorrow morning for a link to join.

What does a Trump second term mean for investors?

Trump supports lower taxes, less regulation, higher tariffs on imported goods, a secure border, deportation of illegal immigrants (starting with criminals and terrorists), a strong military but little or no involvement in foreign conflicts. And he wants to “drill, baby, drill.”

Harris wants higher taxes on corporations, higher taxes on capital gains, price controls, open borders, defund the police, end private health insurance, continued aid to Ukraine to keep that war going and expansion of the Green New Scam.

You don’t need to be an economist or political scientist to see that the Trump and Harris policies are complete opposites, and they will have radically different impacts on individual stocks, bonds and portfolio allocations.

Trump’s policies will be very good for U.S. jobs, U.S. wages, the U.S. economy, and by extension U.S. stocks. It will not necessarily be good for the global economy.

I was in a debate recently and somebody mentioned that India and China will suffer under Trump. That’s their problem. Right now, we’re trying to prop up all these foreign economies. If you’re a globalist, that’s just fine, but if you’re America First or you care about your own country, then it’s not fine.

The bottom line is Trump policies are good for U.S. companies and U.S. markets, U.S. workers, and not necessarily good for emerging markets around the world.

Here are some of the sectors that will benefit with a Trump victory in November:

• Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining
• Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)
• Defense (especially in contractors with good R&D programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)
• Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal combustion engines rather than electric vehicles
• Cryptocurrency plays
• Banking and finance (As the economy grows, the banks profit as intermediaries)

I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.

After taking office, Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He will make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.

He will also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal combustion engines.

Note: Stay tuned next week for a free report from my senior analyst Dan Amoss and myself that will outline some investment ideas (complete with specific tickers) to take advantage of in anticipation of a Trump second term.

But first, please join me for a special briefing tomorrow at 10 am ET sharp where I will update you on the state of the race, including the real reason why momentum points to a Trump victory on Election Day. I’ll send you another email tomorrow morning with a link to join.

Stay tuned for more updates as we head towards the finish line.

Last night, was the vice-presidential debate. The candidates had the opportunity to give their views to the American voters on important topics as we head toward Election Day. Below is a full analysis of the debate.

The Rundown

The obvious winner was JD Vance. The loser was Tim Walz, while the CBS moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan also managed to embarrass themselves.

Vance appeared relaxed and comfortable in the limelight. Obviously, he had engaged in extensive debate preparation and was crammed full of relevant facts. But he presented himself in a dignified way and was able to make his technical points clearly and without jargon. He was a champion of “common sense” instead of reliance on so-called experts. This surely registered with a large part of the audience.

Walz Was Like a Nervous Cat

Walz was also well-prepped and well-rehearsed. But he was too rehearsed. His demeanor came across as some combination of an angry professor and a nervous cat on a high wire. He practically ignored Vance at times and kept talking about Trump, Trump, Trump in a highly disparaging way. His attacks on Trump recycled tired canards. The viewers were likely asking, “Why are you attacking Trump instead of telling us what you would do if elected?”

Regular readers know that I focus on body language as much as what the candidates are saying. There’s a huge body of research that shows most viewers do the same even if their observations are subconscious. This X-factor was a big part of Vance’s victory in the debate.

Walz seemed weak and nervous at key points, especially as the dialogue on climate change wore on. He was animated but in a bad way. He was scowling and yelling at the camera instead of speaking in a calm and composed manner. His eyes were bugging out and the veins in his neck were bulging, both signs of stress.

His face had a mean look even when he was not speaking. His eyes were shifty. Overall, his performance recalled the Howard Dean speech that ended with a prolonged scream (known ever since as the Dean Scream) on January 19, 2004, which finished Dean’s political career. Walz’s political career may also be about to end after his debate performance.

Walz had earlier lied about the fact that he was in China at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He wasn’t there. When asked to explain, he offered a convoluted answer that involved more lies about the original lie. He was nervous throughout that non-answer. You could see on his face that he was still lying.

Vance Showed His Debating Chops

In contrast, Vance was friendly and composed but also highly disciplined. He looked right at the camera except when he confronted the moderators on some dirty tricks or when he looked right at Walz to make a point. Both moves were highly effective. Vance countered Walz’s lines about Trump by draping Kamala Harris around his neck. Vance made the point that Harris has been vice president already for almost four years and could have fixed many of the policies that she now claims she wants to fix if elected.

The moderators were completely biased against Vance, but they embarrassed themselves in adopting that stance. The questions were clearly designed to hit Vance hard on climate change, abortion and the January 6, 2020, riots while giving Walz a softball to hit at the same time. This is where Vance showed his debating chops.

When confronted on climate change, Vance deftly pivoted to creating U.S. jobs and said that moving jobs from high-polluting countries like China back to the U.S. would reduce CO₂ emissions since U.S. manufacturing is much cleaner than Chinese manufacturing.

When Vance was confronted about mass deportations of illegal aliens, he said that he had been to the border many times and the border patrol “just want to do their jobs” in accordance with U.S. law. He came across as sincere, not dogmatic. He also drove a wedge between Harris and Walz by saying that reduced illegal immigration would leave more jobs available for legal American citizens.

The Moderators Were Flustered

The highlight of the evening was when moderators Margaret Brennan and Norah O’Donnell insisted on “fact-checking” Vance on climate change and other issues. Vance called out Margaret Brennan for doing this since CBS had agreed they would not engage in real time fact-checking and because they never fact-checked Walz on anything. He then buried her on substance. Total cojones.

Brennan then got so flustered she yelled, “Your mikes are cut!” as they shut down Vance’s microphones. Vance kept talking and she yelled “no one can hear you” but I watched it live and I could hear Vance clearly picked up by Brennan’s own mike. The CBS anchors looked like fools, and Vance came across as the hero. That moment alone will go down in TV debate history.

Vance was brilliant on substance. He said the solution to school shootings is to improve security at the schools rather than take away guns from law-abiding citizens. He said the Minnesota law allowing abortions in the ninth month and killing of children who survived an attempted abortion was “fundamentally barbaric.” Walz offered a lame defense of the Minnesota abortion law. Vance shot back, “I asked for an answer, and you gave me a slogan.”

Vance made it clear that a Trump administration would support fertility treatments, give pregnant women more options and let each state decide how to handle the issue. (The same evening of the debate Trump said he would veto a national abortion ban. That takes that issue off the table).

Vance explained that Trump’s tariffs would end imports from countries that use “slave labor.” At this point, Walz was nonplussed and looked like a deer in the headlights.

Vance was brilliant on the failings of so-called experts. He said they were wrong about offshoring jobs, wrong about cheap imports and wrong about Big Pharma and Big Tech. Again, Vance urged “common sense” solutions instead of relying on experts. Most Americans certainly agree.

Also, Vance managed to work in the word “weird” twice in referring to Walz’s policies. That was a nice turnaround from the early stage of the campaign when Walz tried to call Republicans weird.

Walz wasted his chance in the closing statement by using platitudes like “joy” and not saying much beyond “vote for Kamala Harris.” Vance made brilliant use of his time by discussing core issues like inflation, housing shortages, fentanyl imports and more and laying them all at the feet of Harris and Walz. That was much more in touch with everyday Americans.

One interesting sidelight is that both Vance and Walz were energetic and fully engaged. This has the unintended side effect of showing just how vapid Kamala Harris is since she could not have survived on that debate stage and still refuses to take reporters’ questions except with teleprompters in tightly controlled circumstances. Walz’s level of engagement did Kamala no favors in comparison.

Bottom line: a convincing win for JD Vance. This should start to show up in polling results in the days ahead.

Democrat efforts to steal the 2020 presidential election are very well documented. In key states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, requirements that mail-in ballots have signatures on the ballot and the envelope that could be compared were ignored. Other mail-in ballots were discarded after supposedly being “counted” so that no paper trail existed.

Ballot harvesting from assisted living facilities and apartment buildings was conducted with no verification that any of the residents actually filled in their ballots. Other supposed mail-in ballots appeared without creases (meaning they had never been mailed) with 95-1 pro-Biden ratios (statistically impossible).

A “water leak” caused an evacuation of a large vote counting center in Atlanta so that poll watchers were ejected while the counting went on without supervision.

Mark Zuckerberg and his wife donated hundreds of millions of dollars to assist communities with vote-counting efforts but the money went overwhelmingly to Democratic districts.

It took all of that and more for Biden to eke out a narrow victory. The idea that the courts rejected the voter fraud claims is false. The courts refused to hear the cases based on procedural grounds such as standing, venue, jurisdiction and laches (waiting too long to bring the claim). That’s quite different from reaching the merits of the claims, which was never done.

This Time it Could Be Worse

After pulling out all the stops to narrowly win in 2020, I’m expecting Democrats to dig even deeper into their bag of tricks to steal this election.

And this time will be even worse…

Of course, the mainstream media will continue to lie. At this point, they’re just state propaganda. Not much different than what happens in North Korea or Russia.

The problem for them is that millions of Americans are waking up to that reality. In fact, a recent survey showed that 60% of likely voters believe “the media are truly the enemy of the people.” They’ve lied so much in the last few years that most people don’t believe them anymore.

And yes, big tech will continue to censor conservatives and any stories that might hurt Biden. But thanks to Elon Musk, this time we have X, a platform that actually respects free speech. So now millions of Americans have access to the truth.

Thankfully, the Republicans have improved their game this time around. They have over 500 lawyers on call to deal in real-time with fraud allegations, there is no pandemic excuse to deny poll watchers a chance to do their jobs and they’re getting better at ballot harvesting from their own districts.

This has forced the Democrats to resort to even more desperate techniques to steal the 2024 election.

Wha’ts Up the Dem’s Sleeve?

One plan is to declare Trump an “insurrectionist” on January 6, 2025, so that his Electoral Votes can be disqualified even if he won the most on Election Day. To back up their January 6^th plan, the Department of Homeland Security, (the same people who opened the border) has put the Secret Service in charge of the Electoral College vote count.

This means if Republicans object to certain Electoral Votes on the day they are counted in the Capitol Building (a perfectly legitimate process) the Secret Service can act as goon squads to suppress any objections to “overturn” the election by “election deniers.”

Now you may ask yourself, how is this even possible? Allow me to explain…

Assume Trump wins the election on November 5 (likely in my view). Also, assume the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in that election. The Electoral College votes are certified by the states on December 8 and then sent to Congress for a final count.

The new Congress is sworn in on January 5, 2025. The Electoral College votes are counted on January 6, 2025. The new president is not scheduled to be sworn in until January 20, 2025.

Sometime between being sworn in and counting the Electoral College votes, the new Democrat House of Representatives could pass a resolution stating that Trump is an insurrectionist and is disqualified from becoming president.

The Supreme Court left the door open to such a resolution. At that point, the House could refuse to count any Electoral College votes for Trump. In the final count, Trump would get zero votes and Kamala Harris would have less than the 270 votes needed to become president.

At that point, the selection of a president would be thrown to the floor of the House (as happened in 1800 and 1826) and the House members voting not as individuals but as state delegations would choose the president. Trump would not be eligible in this scenario, but a Republican would be the likely winner because Republicans control more state delegations even as the Democrats have more individual votes.

There seem to be no limits on the lengths to which progressives, radicals and their lawfare enablers will go to destroy their political opponents.

They are terrified that Trump will be reelected. That’s why they will do everything in their power to stop him from being sworn in again next January and create chaos in the streets.

But you aren’t helpless as an investor. That’s why subscribing to Strategic Intelligence is so important. We will help guide you through the minefields of this election season and beyond to both protect and grow your wealth.

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Last week, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate as we had projected, although the cut was 0.50% rather than the 0.25% cut we had expected. This didn’t come as a shock, because a 0.50% cut was definitely on the table. That said, it’s not a material difference for economic growth because this rate cut will not have any stimulative effect even if it’s larger than we expected.

Interest rate cuts are consistent with a weak economy and recessionary conditions. And all economic indicators show that a recession is coming (and could already be here). The Fed is once again reacting instead of being proactive.

Once the recession hits, it will cause stocks to fall as earnings are revised downward, consumers tighten their belts, and companies relying on discretionary spending will suffer.

Now, here is our weekly Five Links.

I. The Steal Begins: Secret Service Put In Charge Of Counting Votes

Democrat efforts to steal the 2020 presidential election are very well documented. In key states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, requirements that mail-in ballots have signatures on the ballot and the envelope that could be compared were ignored. Other mail-in ballots were discarded after supposedly being “counted” so that no paper trail existed. Ballot harvesting from assisted living facilities and apartment buildings was conducted with no verification that any of the residents actually filled-in their ballots. Other supposed mail-in ballots appeared without creases (meaning they had never been mailed) with 95-1 pro-Biden ratios (statistically impossible). A “water leak” caused an evacuation of a large vote counting center in Atlanta so that poll watchers were ejected while the counting went on without supervision. Mark Zuckerberg and his wife donated hundreds of millions of dollars to assist communities with vote counting efforts but the money went overwhelmingly to Democratic districts. It took all of that and more for Biden to eke out a narrow victory. The idea that the courts rejected the voter fraud claims is false. The courts refused to hear the cases based on procedural grounds such as standing, venue, jurisdiction and laches (waiting too long to bring the claim). That’s quite different from reaching the merits of the claims, which was never done. The Republicans have improved their game this time around. They have over 500 lawyers on call to deal in real time with fraud allegations, there is no pandemic excuse to deny poll watchers a chance to do their jobs and they’re getting better at ballot harvesting from their own districts. This has forced the Democrats to resort to even more desperate techniques to steal the 2024 election. One plan is to declare Trump an “insurrectionist” on January 6, 2025, so that his Electoral Votes can be disqualified even if he won the most on Election Day. To back up their January 6^th plan, the Department of Homeland Security, (the same people who opened the border) has put the Secret Service in charge of the Electoral College vote count. This means if Republicans object to certain Electoral Votes on the day they are counted in the Capitol Building (a perfectly legitimate process) the Secret Service can act as goon squads to suppress any objections as an effort to “overturn” the election by “election deniers.” The main job of the Secret Service today is to facilitate the assassination of Donald Trump. If Trump survives to January 6, 2025, their main job will be to help rig the vote at the finish line.

II. Kamala Is A Complete Fake. Her Face Gives It Away

Body language is a powerful signal that very few can control. Research shows that when guests appear on television, the viewers hear almost nothing of what is being said. Instead, they focus on the face and demeanor of the speaker. Is the speaker being honest? Can I trust this person? Is this person self-confident and likely to remain calm in a crisis? On the other hand, the viewer may ask, Is this person insecure? Will this person look out for herself instead of being concerned about the country? This is what viewers are doing even if subconsciously rather than taking a speaker’s words at face value. Other tells include a person who cannot look you in the eye (or the TV equivalent, which is looking straight at the camera). Viewers are put off by shifty eyes (although this can sometimes be unintentional when unseasoned TV guest shifts his eyes between the camera and a studio monitor. The monitor is a natural attraction. That’s why I always ask for the monitor to be turned off so I can focus on the camera). Wiggling in your seat, tapping your toes, touching your face or mashing your hands together are other examples of bad TV demeanor that leaves an impression of weakness or insecurity in the minds of the viewers. Body language matters. That’s why this column by Miranda Devine is so powerful. She takes a look at Kamala Harris’s body language in the September debate with Donald Trump. Obviously, Kamala’s handlers know as much about body language on TV as I do. But they had few options since Kamala is not that bright and has no real convictions when it comes to policies except to do what the extreme left wants her to do. The solution for the Harris camp during the debate with Trump was to turn her into an actress with pre-arranged poses such as rolling her eyes, putting her fist to her chin like Rodin’s “Thinker,” and silently laughing when Trump was making a serious point. Far from convincing the audience, Kamala’s display of rehearsed poses revealed to the audience what a phony she is. Of course, the phony body language was in sync with her lies about Trump, none of which were challenged by the ABC network fact-checkers (who usually got the facts wrong themselves). The overall impression the viewers got of Kamala was of a weak and insecure individual despite the canned rhetoric. The immediate judgment of corporate media was that Kamala Harris “won” the debate. But the lasting subliminal impression is that of a weak and insecure loser. That’s the real power of body language. The camera doesn’t lie.

III. Media Lies About Trump Are Old News. It Has Been Going On For Years

Media bias against conservatives and nationalists like Donald Trump and his MAGA supporters is old news. That has been around for decades, well before Trump. What’s new is the outright lying. There’s not even a pretense of objective journalism anymore. The corporate media (NBC, CBS, ABC, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and their fellow travelers) simply lie about Trump’s policies, his speeches and the state of his campaign. They lie using various techniques such as taking statements out of context, repeating stories that have been definitely shown to be wrong, rigging polls, collaborating with Democrats ahead of supposedly even-handed “debates,” suppressing news that’s negative to Kamala and much more. This summary of the lying and propaganda machine by eminent historian Victor Davis Hanson sets the record straight. Hanson says, “The public is exhausted after a decade of chronic untruth from the left wing and its media.” He’s right. Hanson surveys the Russian collusion hoax, the fake “Steele dossier,” the investigation led by special prosecutor Robert Mueller that came up empty, the cover-up of the Hunter Biden laptop discovery, the infamous 51 intelligence community leaders who destroyed their reputations by signing a letter that said the Hunter Biden laptop looked like Russian disinformation (it wasn’t), and much more. Not only is the public exhausted by the lies, one almost becomes exhausted just reviewing Hanson’s’ list of lies. But we owe it to ourselves to do so. If those dedicated to the truth stop trying and stop calling out the lying media then the media wins. We can’t let that happen. This article is good checklist for how to spot media lies and how to call them out.

IV. Democrats Have Now Normalized The Elimination Of Free Speech

What’s amazing about the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is that it not only protects free speech but does so in the clearest possible way. “Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press, or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” The First Amendment protects free speech using as few words as possible in a way that leaves no room for equivocation. It does not say that so-called “hate speech” can be abridged. It does not say that the words of your political opponents can be abridged. It does not even say that lies can be abridged (although there are other remedies for lies that do not abridge free speech including libel, defamation and anti-fraud statutes). The courts have been crystal clear on the application of the First Amendment. Nazis are given free speech. Antisemites are given free speech. Racists are given free speech. That’s the point. The way to push back on Nazis, antisemites and racists is not by abridging speech, but by debate, counter-argument, lawsuits, and statutes that guarantee human rights and civil rights to individuals and groups under attack. Freedom of speech is too precious to constrain. The answer has always been to use your own free speech rights to call out the repugnant voices. That’s why this article by distinguished law Professor Jonathan Turley is so important. He’s a liberal Democrat but he values the Bill of Rights and the First Amendment above party loyalty and ideology. He’s appalled at how Democrats such as Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Hillary Clinton and AOC as well as foreign leaders in Brazil, the EU and elsewhere are calling for free speech to be abridged both in the U.S. and abroad. Harris said that Donald Trump’s social media posts “should be taken down.” She also said that unregulated free speech “has to stop.” Hillary Clinton and Tim Walz both said in recent interviews that free speech is not unlimited and there should be censorship of so-called “disinformation,” “misinformation,” and “inflammatory” rhetoric. Of course, they never stop to think that the most egregious sources of disinformation are themselves. Hillary Clinton had her fake Steele dossier and claims of “Russian collusion” by Trump (both false). Tim Walz set up hotlines so neighbors could rat out neighbors for trying to get some fresh air during Walz’s extreme pandemic lockdowns in Minnesota. Again, the point is simple. Free speech must be free regardless of content. It’s the one right that gives meaning to all of the other rights including freedom of religion, freedom from unjust accusations, and freedom from government confiscation of property. Turley makes this case expertly and convincingly. Reading this article will give you a good start on understanding the critical right to free speech and how it’s under attack.

V. Here’s The Latest On The Criminal Lawfare Attacks On Trump

The lawfare attacks on Donald Trump have not been in the headlines lately but that does not mean they’ve all gone away. We’re in a bit of a quiet period at the moment but things will hot up again in the near future just in time for Election Day and a possible Trump victory. Here’s a quick summary: Trump is still awaiting sentencing in New York in the so-called hush money case. Sentencing was originally scheduled for mid-September but biased Judge Merchan (whose daughter makes millions of dollars doing consulting work for Democrats) pushed the date back to November 26. That means if Trump wins the election, Merchan can send him to the New York State prison and keep him there. The Trump inauguration on January 21, 2025, may have to take place in a prison cell. Welcome to America 2025. The classified documents case arising from the Gestapo-type FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago has been properly dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon on grounds that the special prosecutor was illegally appointed in the first place. That ruling is on appeal. The idea that the special prosecutor Jack Smith may have been illegally appointed was raised by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas in his concurring opinion in Trump v. United States (2024), the landmark case on presidential immunity. The Georgia election conspiracy case involving Trump and 18 other defendants is completely bogged down. A Georgia appellate court has dismissed some of the charges. Meanwhile, the prosecutor Fani Willis is under investigation for ethics violations including appointing her lover Nathan Wade to be the lead litigator despite having no experience in large, complex criminal cases. Willis and Wade took expensive holidays using the money he was paid at taxpayer expense based on her hiring decision. That ethics investigation will take several months to conclude. The result may be that Willis is kicked off the case or even that the case may be dismissed because of her misconduct. We’ll find out early next year. The Bronx, New York business records case that resulted in over $500 million in fines against Trump related to a loan that was paid on time and as agreed from a bank that said they would make the same loan again is on appeal. Finally, there’s the January 6^th case pending in the Federal courts in Washington DC also led by biased prosecutor Jack Smith. The partisan Judge Tanya Chutkan has approved a calendar for both parties that will not result in a trial until early next year. However, she took the unprecedented step of allowing the prosecution to file an “opening brief” on the question of presidential immunity. That violates the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, which customarily allows the defense to file a brief first with a prosecution answer to follow. It may not matter since a conviction is likely to be overturned under Trump v. United States when the case is on appeal. And it’s entirely possible Trump will pardon himself (or require the Justice Department to dismiss the case) if he wins the election and is sworn in on January 21, 2025. You’ll be hearing more about these cases in the weeks ahead. The Democratic lawfare machine never rests.