Operation Save America

Jim Rickards’ “American Birthright” thesis reveals a hidden federal asset — a vast reserve of untapped natural resources valued near $150 trillion… locked away for over 160 years.

But this reserve may soon be unlocked, via President Donald Trump’s executive order signed on February 3, 2025, directing the Treasury and Commerce secretaries to develop a plan within 90 days to create the first U.S. sovereign wealth fund (SWF).

• A sovereign wealth fund is a government-owned investment fund that manages national assets — for instance, stocks, bonds, real estate and natural resources — to generate returns and support national economic goals.

These funds are typically financed by surplus revenues, often from natural resources like oil and gas, or from budget and trade surpluses

In the coming days, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to present a plan, which will outline the fund's structure, governance, funding and investment strategies.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, May 7, 2025...

… And Who Benefits From Them

Although SWFs invest in a broad range of assets, their objectives commonly include:

• Economic Stabilization: Cushioning the economy against volatile commodity prices

• Savings for Future Generations: Preserving wealth to ensure long-term economic security

• Economic Diversification: Reducing reliance on a single revenue source

• Strategic Investments: Supporting key industries and infrastructure that align with national interests.

In short, Sovereign wealth funds provide financial stability and generate income that can reduce tax burdens, fund public services, support pensions and more.

By investing wisely, SWFs help smooth out economic cycles, preserve wealth for future generations and promote sustainable economic growth.

At the same time, governance structures are designed to ensure accountability, with professional management often separate from direct government control.

Some examples of SWFs?

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF): With over $925 billion in assets, the PIF invests globally to diversify the economy beyond oil and strengthen Saudi Arabia’s strategic economic position. President Trump has cited the PIF as a model for a U.S. fund.

Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global: Established in 1990 from oil revenues, this is the world’s largest SWF, managing about $1.8 trillion. It invests broadly in international stocks, bonds and real estate. The fund supports government spending and pensions, providing about 20% of Norway’s annual revenues.

While the federal government has not had a sovereign wealth fund before, 11 U.S. states operate their own SWFs — primarily funded by revenues from natural resources.

Notable examples include:

• Alaska Permanent Fund: Valued at nearly $80 billion, it distributes annual dividends — in the form of a check — to eligible residents.

• Texas Permanent School Fund: Established in 1845, it’s one of the oldest and largest sovereign wealth funds in the U.S., with assets exceeding $57 billion as of 2024. As its name implies, its primary mission is to support Texas public schools.

These state funds demonstrate that SWFs work effectively in regions with abundant natural resources, helping stabilize economies and provide long-term benefits for citizens.

To summarize: Sovereign wealth funds are government-run investment vehicles that manage national assets to generate economic benefits, stabilize budgets and save for the future.

Examples from Saudi Arabia and Norway show how SWFs can diversify economies and provide steady income streams. In the U.S., 11 states — including Alaska and Texas — have successfully operated SWFs, mainly leveraging natural-resource wealth.

President Trump’s executive order signals a move to create a federal SWF, reflecting the proven success of such funds in resource-rich regions and their potential to enhance America’s economic security.

And here’s just one potential benefit…

Senators, including Bill Cassidy (R-LA) , have proposed using a SWF — separate from the Social Security Trust Fund — to preserve seniors’ benefits.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, May 7, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% to 5,640.

Oil is up 0.60% to $59.43 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 0.80% to $3,394.50 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s up almost 2%, just under $97,000.

“Trump 2028” campaign hats are selling out…

Courtesy: trumpstore.com

The bright red hats are definitely courting controversy… Will Trump challenge the constitutional two-term limit for U.S. presidents?

Paradigm’s macro expert Jim Rickards sheds light on the debate. He explains that while the 22nd Amendment states — “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice” — the situation is not as straightforward as it seems.

Your Rundown for Monday, May 5, 2025...

Loopholes: A Long Shot?

Historically, the two-term limit was more a tradition than a law until Franklin D. Roosevelt broke the precedent by winning four elections in the 1930s and 1940s. This led to the ratification of the 22nd Amendment in 1951 to prevent future presidents from serving more than two terms.

Jim points out that Trump, under the 22nd Amendment, cannot be elected for a third term. Yet, Trump has hinted there might be “methods” to bypass this rule, teasing the idea repeatedly in the media.

One potential loophole Jim highlights involves the wording of the 22nd Amendment, which restricts being “elected” more than twice. This opens the door to a scenario wherein Trump would run as a vice president candidate, say with JD Vance as president, and then assume the presidency if Vance resigned.

Since Trump would not be “elected” president in that case, the 22nd Amendment might not apply. Legal experts, however, debate this because the 12th Amendment says no person “constitutionally ineligible” to be president can be vice president.

Jim explains that since the 12th Amendment predates the 22nd, courts might rule the newer amendment takes precedence. But the issue, for now, is unsettled.

Another route Jim mentions is amending the Constitution to repeal or modify the 22nd Amendment. This is a difficult process, requiring two-thirds approval in Congress and ratification by three-fourths of the states.

While unlikely, some Republicans have introduced proposals to allow Trump a third term.

Finally, a more unconventional scenario involves Trump becoming Speaker of the House after the president and vice president resign, thus ascending to the presidency via the line of succession, though this is legally untested and politically complicated.

As Jim Rickards summarizes: “Nothing is ever quite as clear as it may first appear.” Trump’s repeated hints about a third term may be as much about provoking his opponents and energizing his base as about actual legal strategies.

The sale of “Trump 2028” hats is part of this larger game, keeping the question alive — whether or not Trump truly plans to run again…

After all, the president will be 82-years-old in 2028.

In the end, if Trump did manage to serve a third term, Jim notes it would be historic, making him the first since FDR to hold office beyond two terms. But for now, the legal ambiguities keep the possibility tantalizingly open.

[Feedback Wanted: What are your thoughts, reader, on the possibility of a third Trump term? Do you see it as a legal stretch or a political reality?]

Market Rundown for Monday, May 5, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.75% to 5,665.

Oil is down 1.50% to $57.37 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s up 2.60% to $3,328.90 per ounce.

Bitcoin is down about 1.30% to $94,310.

Florida’s Republican Party is weathering a political hurricane. At its center: First Lady Casey DeSantis and her signature welfare initiative, Hope Florida.

Launched in 2021, Hope Florida aims to connect needy Floridians with nonprofits and faith-based groups, reducing reliance on the state’s welfare system.

By 2024, the state claims 30,000 Floridians have moved off public assistance, saving Florida taxpayers $100 million.

But what started as a program to help Floridians has exposed deep rifts within the state’s GOP.

Now, the initiative’s nonprofit counterpart — the Hope Florida Foundation — is under investigation.

At the heart of the controversy? A $10 million “donation”....

Your Rundown for Friday, May 2, 2025...

Florida’s NEXT Governor DeSantis?

“That money, critics say, was part of a settlement agreement involving the state’s largest Medicaid contractor, Centene,” The Hill outlines.

“According to them, a chunk of that settlement, all of which was intended to be returned to state and federal coffers, was sent to the Hope Florida Foundation and eventually ended up in the hands of political groups that campaigned against [a] ballot measure.”

Most conspicuously, about $8.75 million was funneled to Keep Florida Clean, a political action committee (PAC) opposing marijuana legalization.

The kicker? The PAC was chaired by DeSantis’ then-chief of staff, James Uthmeier — who is now Florida’s state attorney general.

Per the questionable flow of funds to the PAC, Florida lawmakers have been grilling Hope Florida Foundation officials.

Republican Rep. Alex Andrade, for example, accuses Uthmeier and others of “a conspiracy to commit money laundering and wire fraud,” referring the matter to federal authorities.

“Federal prosecutors could invoke any number of criminal laws in a potential case involving the settlement money,” says an article at the Tampa Bay Times.

For the time being, however, the matter has been dropped.

Still, Governor DeSantis calls the investigation a “smear,” insisting the $10 million “was an additional charitable donation Centene made as part of the settlement.

“It’s all because they want to try to impugn our Hope Florida program,” he says. “It’s all political.”

To wit, Casey DeSantis — with a 53% approval rating (according to a March poll) — is a serious contender for Florida governor in 2026.

Although she has not confirmed that she will run…

Polymarket, the digital forum where bettors can place simple yes/no wagers on real-world events, currently gives her a 47% chance of running for governor

In the meantime, Casey DeSantis’ chief rival, Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R), is himself aligned with House leaders feuding with Governor DeSantis.

Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist, sums up the mood: “It is war.” And the Hope Florida scandal, he adds, is a preview of the “slime” to come.

As one strategist puts it: “The battle playing out in Tallahassee… [pits] legislative leaders vs. the governor.”

Florida’s GOP is divided. And the 2026 primary could get ugly.

Market Rundown for Friday, May 2, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.45% to 5,645.

Oil is down 1% to $58.62 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s up 1.30% to $3,265.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 0.40% to $96,985.

It was a seemingly throwaway line from my conversation this month with Paradigm’s pro trader, Enrique Abeyta, about his Trump tariffs thesis (i.e. “countering China”).

“If China decided to get aggressive — let’s say with Taiwan or even the Philippines — we’d be dangerously reliant on [China] for critical goods,” said Enrique.

The Philippines? I remember thinking at the time: Hmm, that seems out-of-pocket. Taiwan, certainly, has been in China’s crosshairs for decades… But the Philippines?

That sounded like a stretch. Until this week…

China and the Philippines just planted competing flags on Sandy Cay, a tiny cluster of sandbars in the South China Sea which has been claimed by several countries.

Source: X

But these symbolic gestures could further inflame tensions in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, April 30, 2025...

A Strategic Outcrop With Outsized Importance

Sandy Cay’s significance goes beyond its modest size.

Unlike many features in the South China Sea, parts of Sandy Cay remain above water even at high tide, giving it the potential to generate a 12-nautical-mile territorial rights under international maritime law.

This makes it a coveted prize for both Beijing and Manila, as control over Sandy Cay could strengthen broader claims to the surrounding waters and other disputed features.

Courtesy: South China Morning Post (SCMP)

Nearby lies Subi Reef, a major Chinese military outpost, submerged at high tide and unable to claim its own territorial sea. But Sandy Cay’s status could shift the legal and strategic balance in Beijing’s favor.

Meanwhile, the Philippines holds Thitu Island, with troops and infrastructure ready to defend their claim.

A History of Standoffs

This isn’t a new drama. Back in 2017, the Philippines tried building a fishermen’s shelter on Sandy Cay.

China protested vigorously, and then-President Duterte, aiming for friendlier ties with Beijing, pulled the plug on construction after China insisted.

Fast forward to April 2025: Chinese coast guard ships landed on Sandy Cay, cleaned up debris, snapped photos with the Chinese flag and made it clear they’re watching.

The Philippines confirms Chinese vessels are lurking close. Not to be outdone, Manila planted its own flag and documented the Chinese presence.

Geopolitical Ripples and Military Maneuvers

This flare-up coincides with the annual Balikatan military exercises between the U.S. and the Philippines, involving thousands of troops.

China responded by sailing an aircraft carrier near the Batanes Islands, close to Sandy Cay.

Raymond Powell, director of Stanford’s SeaLight project tracking Chinese maritime activity, explains China’s strategy:

“They push forward in ways big and small, usually small enough to avoid an aggressive U.S. or international backlash, but enough to remind the Philippines that resistance is futile.”

Why Sandy Cay Matters

Sandy Cay is far more than a remote sandbar. For Beijing, controlling it strengthens expansive maritime claims and demonstrates power. For Manila, it’s about defending sovereignty and upholding international law.

The stakes are global. The South China Sea is a critical artery for commerce — with about one-third of all maritime trade, valued at over $3 trillion annually — passing through.

Disruptions here would ripple across global supply chains, threatening energy, raw materials and manufactured goods flows between Asia, Europe and beyond.

Why Americans Should Care

For Americans, the consequences are direct and severe.

The U.S. is bound by mutual defense treaties with the Philippines, meaning a conflict could draw America into a hot war with China.

Beyond military risks, supply-chain disruptions would fuel inflation, shortages of essential goods and higher energy costs at home.

As Enrique warns, America’s overreliance on China amplifies the stakes and underscores Trump’s tariff-driven push to counter Beijing’s dominance.

“If we don’t,” Enrique says, “there’ll be an inescapable backlash in the next 20–30 years.”

Market Rundown for Wednesday, April 30, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.70% to 5,545.

Oil is down 1% to $59.77 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 1% to $3,299.80 per ounce.

And Bitcoin’s down 0.80% to $94,500.

Paradigm’s renowned macro authority Jim Rickards has built his reputation on seeing around corners in global finance.

With decades of experience on Wall Street and a track record that includes predicting Donald Trump’s election — both times — Jim brings a boots-on-the-ground perspective to the world’s most pressing economic issues.

He insists there’s “no substitute for walking the streets around the world (including the poorest areas) if you really want to know what’s going on.” For Jim, real insight comes from direct observation, not just staring at screens.

After recent travels to India, Japan and even Jekyll Island, Jim observes, despite their differences, “they share a common thread. It’s their economic linkage through the U.S. dollar.”

“King dollar,” he says, “still dominates the global financial system despite the cracks in the foundation and the valid criticisms.

“If there’s a dollar problem in Eurodollar banks, it’s sure to echo from Tokyo to Shanghai and New York. And problems in those locales affect everything else.”

The interconnectedness of global finance? Still inescapable, he notes, even as globalization in trade and supply chains may be fading, financial markets remain “inextricably linked in ways that few understand.”

Your Rundown for Monday, April 28, 2025...

Tariffs, Trade and Trump’s Strategy

As for tariffs, Jim is pragmatic: “Tariffs are not automatically good or bad for an economy. Their impact depends on initial conditions when the tariffs are imposed. Tariffs are a tool that should be applied judiciously.”

For the U.S., which “over consumes and under invests,” tariffs can drive investment and channel dollars into savings and high-paying jobs.

For China, which “over invests and under consumes,” the best strategy would be to “lower its own tariffs and allow its people to spend their savings on imported goods.”

Turning to trade policy, Jim sees tariffs as a calculated move. “Trump’s tariffs will benefit the U.S., but hurt some of its trading partners,” he says bluntly.

“I have this debate all the time… I talk to a lot of people about it and they say to me, ‘Jim, these tariffs… might be good for the United States but they're going to be bad for the rest of the world.’ And I say, too bad.”

He emphasizes: “It is bad for… China, Vietnam, maybe India, Malaysia and some other trading partners… but it’s very good for the United States”.

Jim points out that “the optimal solution is not to cut down on U.S. purchases from those countries but for them to buy more from the U.S. That trims the U.S. trade deficit without reducing world trade and so constitutes a win-win resolution.”

He predicts, for instance, India will buy more military hardware and semiconductors, while Japan will likely increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. “The result will be higher growth in the U.S.”

But Jim doesn’t sugarcoat the downsides: “Bilateral deals like this have losers. Taiwan may miss out on some semiconductor sales… Russia may miss out on military sales to India.”

Still, he insists…

• “The U.S. is done being the ‘consumer of last resort’ to the world and wants to increase its profile as a seller. Trump’s policies move the U.S. in that direction.”

Jim is unapologetic about the impact on other countries: “Not to sound harsh, but that's their problem. Trump’s job is to make America great again. President Xi's job is to make China great again. The U.S. cannot carry the world on its back.”

Finally, Jim warns of a “silent financial crisis.”

He argues the Fed “has fallen into complete irrelevance,” with little control. “What the Fed and the Treasury have done… is to create a global dollar shortage, which is now morphing into a global liquidity crisis.”

He describes the essence of a crisis: “Everybody wants his money back. We’re dangerously close to that situation right now. If it gets worse, trade, tariffs and stock markets will be a sideshow. Watch Treasury yields and foreign exchange markets if you really want to know what’s going on.”

With his trademark candor, Jim sums up the volatility ahead: “A new wave of financial turbulence will soon challenge the system, and only those prepared will weather the storm.”

Market Rundown for Monday, April 28, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.15% to 5,540.

Oil is down 0.10% to $62.94 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.20% to $3,306.80 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up almost 1% to $95,300.

I’m Byron King, senior geologist for Jim Rickards.

I’ve been working with Jim on various publications for many years and have crisscrossed the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities. You could say I have gained Jim’s trust by being out in the field and reporting back on the latest intel in the precious metals and energy markets.

That’s why I’m reporting on something Donald Trump did recently that most investors missed.

Trump signed an executive order that fast-tracks the federal permitting process to mine our mineral-rich Federal lands. And that’s a big deal. Why?

Because for many decades, America has been sitting on a $150 trillion fortune. But it’s been locked up by bureaucrats and anti-development regulation.

Now, though, and for the first time in several generations, the government is going to monetize America’s real, physical wealth. Not just with things like our nation’s gold reserves. But with all the priceless metals and resources hidden under the surface on our Federal lands.

Investors like you who tap into these minerals right now could become wealthier than you ever imagined. In fact, this secret store of wealth is so valuable, it could turn every legal U.S. citizen into a millionaire. This is your American birthright in action!

Thanks in large part to President Trump.

How did we get to this point? Let’s look at a map…

Along Came Trump

Now, I don’t work for President Trump, and he doesn’t call me on the phone to discuss policy. But I can think of two key drivers behind his efforts to unleash your American birthright.

First, look at the 2024 presidential electoral map, especially by county. Trump won the American heartland big-time.

2024 presidential electoral map by county. Courtesy Washington Post.

Trump wrapped up his win for president based on solid wins across the industrial Midwest, from Western Pennsylvania through Ohio and Michigan, over to Wisconsin. And while Trump lost overall in states like Illinois and Minnesota based on the urban vote, look at the rest of those jurisdictions. In suburban and rural areas where many current (and former) mines, mills, and factories are located, voters casted ballots for Trump.

Right away, you can see where the working-class vote came out for Trump. People voted for jobs, jobs, and jobs, and that point was central to Trump’s message. So anymore, when he talks about opening up America for renewal – the MAGA message, if not an American birthright – he reflects the desires of his voter base.

Another angle on Trump’s policies goes back to 2020, early in the pandemic. People realized that the U.S. no longer manufactures most of its medical products and supplies. Then (and even now), America imported massive quantities of items from overseas, especially China.

In other words, it dawned on many that the country’s medical supply chain relied on third-party foreign players. From antibiotics to pacemakers, blood thinners to bandages and much more, most U.S. medical products originated from abroad (eg, China and India), and still do in many instances. Or there’s the issue that the items may be manufactured domestically but with precursor chemicals from abroad. Right away, this became a national security issue.

Meanwhile, we’re now in the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and one glaring takeaway is that the U.S. lacks a sufficient industrial base to supply and resupply its military. Examples are legion and range from the inability to mass-produce ammunition like artillery shells and missiles, to the glacial pace of output for aircraft, ships, submarines and more, including the latest battlefield development, drones.

Arguably, the U.S. is a superpower only in a legacy sense, meaning that war reserve warehouses are filled with equipment and ammunition produced long ago, in factories that are no longer there; or if they’re still there, they have limited capacity.

Looking ahead, what if the U.S. had to fight a real war? Well, America is no longer that so-called “Arsenal of Democracy” you read about in history books. We have a strategic-level problem on our hands that the Deep State perma-bureaucrats in Washington do not want to publicize and overly highlight. Hey, they don’t care, and their paycheck always comes on time, right?

But the national security issue is real and absolutely concrete. Military power is the first derivative of industrial power, and Trump wants rapidly to rebuild U.S. industry to reenable military strength. Of course, people write long books about these topics, and this is only a newsletter article.

What do all these industrial goals have in common? The country needs minerals and metals in manufacturing, whether it’s for medical or military use. This is a framework through which to understand what we see with Trump and his policies.

The Man from Queens wants to open up America, to permit people to invest and reinvest in basic resources and wealth creation. He wants this land to be more for you and me to share the wealth, not just the special interests.

What Does It Mean to You?

What should you do as an investor? The short answer is to invest in American companies that will benefit from Trump opening up federal lands, reducing regulations on development, and moving to reshore industry. That is, own hard assets like energy and resources, plus of course, precious metals.

Shares in steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), an American steelmaking play, offer upside if Trump’s metal tariffs remain in place for the longer term. Or look at a copper player like Freeport McMoRan (FCX), which has domestic and overseas production of red metal, along with a precious metals stream, extracting gold and silver from copper mining.

On the energy side, ExxonMobil (XOM) remains a solid play based on its domestic energy production, along with impressive future growth from its overseas operations, especially its giant discoveries offshore Guyana in South America.

With precious metals in the strict sense, keep Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Mining (NEM) on the table as strong plays that will only improve in a rising gold market. And Kinross Gold (KGC) also offers excellent upside opportunity as gold prices rise.

Please note, though, that some of these names are not official recommendations in our portfolio, although I keep an eye on all of them. I will keep you updated as needed.

In fact, a few of these names are included in your special report, The American Birthright: How to Claim Your Share of America’s $150 Trillion Mineral Endowment.

If you haven’t reviewed this report yet, I urge you to take a look at five American Birthright plays that could make you a fortune.

And stay tuned for more on American Birthright analysis and opportunities from Jim on his next briefing call live next Tuesday, April 8 at 10 am ET. You’ll get more information about this call in the coming days.

With that, I’ll sign off for now…

Thank you for subscribing and reading.

Election Day has finally arrived.

To keep you ahead of the curve, below is our final pre-election analysis for the 2024 elections based on available data from late on Monday, November 5. It is an update on our detailed analysis from the November issue of Strategic Intelligence distributed on November 1 using new information gathered over the past four days.

In addition to the very latest analysis this morning, I will be conducting a LIVE post-Election Day briefing with my publisher tomorrow at 11 am ET. We will discuss the election results and what to expect going forward. You’ll receive access information later today for that event, so please keep an eye on your inbox for instructions on how to join us. Hope to see you there.

Our core election forecast has not changed. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to be president. Donald J. Trump will win election as president by an electoral vote count of 312-226 in our conservative estimate, and perhaps do as well as 329-209 in a slightly more aggressive estimate where Trump wins Michigan, Virginia and New Hampshire.

My Senate forecast is that Republicans will re-take the Senate with a solid 54-46 majority, up from their current minority status of only 49 Senate seats. My House forecast with 435 seats up for grabs is more speculative (due to scarce polling data), but my best estimate is that the Republicans will hold the House and increase their lead slightly to 225-210, up from the current margin of 220-212 (with 3 vacancies). That will give the Republicans a solid working majority.

This outcome would leave the Republicans in charge of the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives with control of future nominees for Supreme Court Justices – a clean sweep.

The Final Polling

Here’s a quick update on the polls as of late Monday, November 4. This information is subject to all the caveats we have expressed over the past few months including small sample sizes, skews toward Democratic participants, large groups who do not respond to polls and many other statistical deficiencies that increase the margin of error or tilt the result to one party or the other. Still, it’s the best information available; just take it for what it’s worth:

RealClear Politics Poll Averages

The National Average is interesting, but it’s an irrelevant beauty contest because presidents are not elected nationally; they are elected state-by-state through the Electoral College process.

Compared to the RealClear Politics averages on October 30, Harris caught up to Trump in the National Average, increased her lead in Michigan and edged ahead of Trump in Wisconsin. Harris also made the race closer in Pennsylvania and Georgia, although Trump remains in the lead. Trump expanded his leads in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

Trump’s best path to victory consists of holding his 2020 states (including North Carolina) and flipping Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Right now, Trump is on track to do exactly that. If Trump takes those states, he does not have to win in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, although he may well do so.

It’s Trump’s race to lose. Still, the polls are so close that no one should be shocked if Kamala pulls out a tight victory.

There is also encouraging news for Trump coming from other reliable pollsters in addition to the RealClear Politics average. One of these is the Trafalgar Group, which has one of the best track records in predicting the outcome of elections since 2016. Here are the latest results as of Monday night from Trafalgar Group:

Comparing Trafalgar to RealClear Politics, we see that Trump is leading in all seven battleground states in Trafalgar while Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan in RealClear. Trump has much bigger leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina in Trafalgar compared to RealClear. But the race is tighter in Nevada according to Trafalgar. In all events, Trump’s path to victory which requires Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania is solid in both polls.

Another prominent pollster with the best prediction record in 2020 is AtlasIntel. Their final 2024 poll released on November 2 shows Trump leading in all seven battleground states.

Those winning margins for Trump are not only larger than what Trafalgar shows (with the exception of Wisconsin), they are mostly outside the poll’s margin of error, which is a relatively low 2.0%. Again, these results put Trump well on his way to victory.

In particular, Michigan could flip for Trump because the large Arab-American community near Detroit may simply not vote (or vote for third-party candidate Jill Stein) in protest against Biden-Harris policies favoring Israel in the Middle East war.

Harris leads heavily among women, while Trump has an equally large lead with men. Whether this plays a decisive role in the outcome or not depends on turnout. If women turn out in far greater numbers than men, then Trump’s lead among men is diluted and Harris could be on a path to victory. If enough men show up, even on Election Day, then Trump should win.

Late Narratives Won’t Change Many Minds

A few other narratives filled up the news cycle over the past week. One was the GarbageGate affair. It began during Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on October 27 when a relatively unknown comic in a warm-up role told a bad joke about Puerto Rico being “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean.” For two days, this dominated the news and was used by Kamala Harris to back up the usual claims of “racism” by Trump and to appeal to Latino voters.

The publicity was huge, but the impact was minimal. Trump maintained his share of the Latino vote, the largest share of any Republican in history.

Then the affair turned 180 degrees when Joe Biden offered up his own assessment. In a video link speech to a Latino network, Biden said, “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.” In a single sentence, Biden called Trump supporters – about half the voters in the country – garbage. The reaction dwarfed anything seen in response to the original bad joke.

Most Americans took offense and were outraged at Biden’s stupidity (although it was consistent with his mumbling and dementia we’ve see on display for years). Trump turned it into a joke by driving a garbage truck and wearing a fluorescent sanitation worker vest to a televised rally. Megan Kelly piled on by fashioning a Halloween dress out of a garbage bag. The fun continued for days with the Republicans turning lemons into lemonade with the help of Joe Biden.

Then matters took a serious turn. The White House tried to cover up Biden’s comments by altering an official transcript to say “supporter’s” instead of “supporters.” The added apostrophe made it appear that Biden was talking about a single supporter’s garbage rather than calling all Trump supporters garbage.

Very few voters bought this explanation. The original comment was on video and Biden’s body language and inflection clearly pointed to “supporters.” Then a whistleblower came forward with evidence that the official transcript had in fact been altered by the White House staff. The matter is now under investigation. Leave it to Joe Biden to turn a political embarrassment into a criminal offense.

In truth, none of the bad joke, the Biden insult, nor the mini scandal in the White House are likely to change many minds. The timing is a good reminder that as many as 80 million Americans had already voted by the end of October and only about 30 million remained to vote on Election Day. For all practical purposes, the election is already over – we just won’t know the winner until late on Election Day or early Wednesday morning.

Late-Breaking Trends

Registration totals show that Republicans have registered considerably more new voters than Democrats. For example, 2020 registration totals in Pennsylvania favored Democrats by 996,466. In 2024, that advantage was down to 410,509. That difference represents a gain of 585,957 Republicans in this election compared to 2020. The Biden margin of victory in 2020 in Pennsylvania was only 80,000 votes. If turnout reflects that change in registrations, Republicans will be well-positioned to win Pennsylvania.

Early voting distributions show more Republicans voting than Democrats. This could be a matter of cannibalizing Election Day voters (in other words, a timing difference and not a difference in total votes), but that seems unlikely. Other evidence showing increased turnout for Republicans would be consistent with increased early voting.

Finally, turnout in rural areas that favor Republicans is quite high, while turnout in urban areas that support Harris is lagging. Harris will win most big cities, but her urban winning margin may not be enough to defeat the Republican rural margin. Harris has her supporters, but their enthusiasm level appears to be low.

Anything else of importance? Oh, yeah. Joe Rogan, a podcaster with the largest audience of any host in the world endorsed Trump late Monday night. Can’t hurt.

And by the way, the traditional midnight vote early this morning in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, who has cast the very first votes for president since 1960? It was a tie, 3 votes each for Trump and Harris. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 5 votes to zero. A prelude for things to come? We’ll see.

Now you have all the information available, and we have more than enough on which to base our forecast. The rest is up to you. It will be close, so your participation is important.Please vote and keep an eye out for an email later today giving access to my post-Election Day LIVE briefing that is being held tomorrow at 11 am ET. See you then.

Welcome to our latest update on Election 2024. If you joined our service recently, we welcome you to the best in financial analysis and look forward to a long lasting and profitable relationship.

Election Day is only a month away. As Donald Trump gathers momentum in the last month of the campaign, the race is tight and the outcome uncertain.

That said, my model puts weight on the more accurate polls, demographic trends and anecdotal evidence. Based on that model, my forecast remains that Trump will win the election.

The more accurate polls show Trump with substantial leads in most key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada) and extremely close in the remaining battleground states (Michigan, Wisconsin).

If Trump sustains those leads, he will win the Electoral College 287 to 251. If Trump were also to take Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, we’re looking at a historic Trump Electoral College landslide of 325 to 213. (For an in-depth look at the current polling numbers, please review our latest monthly issue here).

What has accounted for this recent momentum for the Trump campaign? The real reason why is going to shock you. That’s why I’m conducting a LIVE briefing with my publisher tomorrow morning, October 11 at 10 am ET to discuss the race and the latest in a major story that has the election swinging towards Trump.  Drop everything and be sure to join us by for this special briefing. Keep an eye on your inbox tomorrow morning for a link to join.

What does a Trump second term mean for investors?

Trump supports lower taxes, less regulation, higher tariffs on imported goods, a secure border, deportation of illegal immigrants (starting with criminals and terrorists), a strong military but little or no involvement in foreign conflicts. And he wants to “drill, baby, drill.”

Harris wants higher taxes on corporations, higher taxes on capital gains, price controls, open borders, defund the police, end private health insurance, continued aid to Ukraine to keep that war going and expansion of the Green New Scam.

You don’t need to be an economist or political scientist to see that the Trump and Harris policies are complete opposites, and they will have radically different impacts on individual stocks, bonds and portfolio allocations.

Trump’s policies will be very good for U.S. jobs, U.S. wages, the U.S. economy, and by extension U.S. stocks. It will not necessarily be good for the global economy.

I was in a debate recently and somebody mentioned that India and China will suffer under Trump. That’s their problem. Right now, we’re trying to prop up all these foreign economies. If you’re a globalist, that’s just fine, but if you’re America First or you care about your own country, then it’s not fine.

The bottom line is Trump policies are good for U.S. companies and U.S. markets, U.S. workers, and not necessarily good for emerging markets around the world.

Here are some of the sectors that will benefit with a Trump victory in November:

• Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining
• Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)
• Defense (especially in contractors with good R&D programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)
• Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal combustion engines rather than electric vehicles
• Cryptocurrency plays
• Banking and finance (As the economy grows, the banks profit as intermediaries)

I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.

After taking office, Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He will make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.

He will also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal combustion engines.

Note: Stay tuned next week for a free report from my senior analyst Dan Amoss and myself that will outline some investment ideas (complete with specific tickers) to take advantage of in anticipation of a Trump second term.

But first, please join me for a special briefing tomorrow at 10 am ET sharp where I will update you on the state of the race, including the real reason why momentum points to a Trump victory on Election Day. I’ll send you another email tomorrow morning with a link to join.

Stay tuned for more updates as we head towards the finish line.

Last night, was the vice-presidential debate. The candidates had the opportunity to give their views to the American voters on important topics as we head toward Election Day. Below is a full analysis of the debate.

The Rundown

The obvious winner was JD Vance. The loser was Tim Walz, while the CBS moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan also managed to embarrass themselves.

Vance appeared relaxed and comfortable in the limelight. Obviously, he had engaged in extensive debate preparation and was crammed full of relevant facts. But he presented himself in a dignified way and was able to make his technical points clearly and without jargon. He was a champion of “common sense” instead of reliance on so-called experts. This surely registered with a large part of the audience.

Walz Was Like a Nervous Cat

Walz was also well-prepped and well-rehearsed. But he was too rehearsed. His demeanor came across as some combination of an angry professor and a nervous cat on a high wire. He practically ignored Vance at times and kept talking about Trump, Trump, Trump in a highly disparaging way. His attacks on Trump recycled tired canards. The viewers were likely asking, “Why are you attacking Trump instead of telling us what you would do if elected?”

Regular readers know that I focus on body language as much as what the candidates are saying. There’s a huge body of research that shows most viewers do the same even if their observations are subconscious. This X-factor was a big part of Vance’s victory in the debate.

Walz seemed weak and nervous at key points, especially as the dialogue on climate change wore on. He was animated but in a bad way. He was scowling and yelling at the camera instead of speaking in a calm and composed manner. His eyes were bugging out and the veins in his neck were bulging, both signs of stress.

His face had a mean look even when he was not speaking. His eyes were shifty. Overall, his performance recalled the Howard Dean speech that ended with a prolonged scream (known ever since as the Dean Scream) on January 19, 2004, which finished Dean’s political career. Walz’s political career may also be about to end after his debate performance.

Walz had earlier lied about the fact that he was in China at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He wasn’t there. When asked to explain, he offered a convoluted answer that involved more lies about the original lie. He was nervous throughout that non-answer. You could see on his face that he was still lying.

Vance Showed His Debating Chops

In contrast, Vance was friendly and composed but also highly disciplined. He looked right at the camera except when he confronted the moderators on some dirty tricks or when he looked right at Walz to make a point. Both moves were highly effective. Vance countered Walz’s lines about Trump by draping Kamala Harris around his neck. Vance made the point that Harris has been vice president already for almost four years and could have fixed many of the policies that she now claims she wants to fix if elected.

The moderators were completely biased against Vance, but they embarrassed themselves in adopting that stance. The questions were clearly designed to hit Vance hard on climate change, abortion and the January 6, 2020, riots while giving Walz a softball to hit at the same time. This is where Vance showed his debating chops.

When confronted on climate change, Vance deftly pivoted to creating U.S. jobs and said that moving jobs from high-polluting countries like China back to the U.S. would reduce CO₂ emissions since U.S. manufacturing is much cleaner than Chinese manufacturing.

When Vance was confronted about mass deportations of illegal aliens, he said that he had been to the border many times and the border patrol “just want to do their jobs” in accordance with U.S. law. He came across as sincere, not dogmatic. He also drove a wedge between Harris and Walz by saying that reduced illegal immigration would leave more jobs available for legal American citizens.

The Moderators Were Flustered

The highlight of the evening was when moderators Margaret Brennan and Norah O’Donnell insisted on “fact-checking” Vance on climate change and other issues. Vance called out Margaret Brennan for doing this since CBS had agreed they would not engage in real time fact-checking and because they never fact-checked Walz on anything. He then buried her on substance. Total cojones.

Brennan then got so flustered she yelled, “Your mikes are cut!” as they shut down Vance’s microphones. Vance kept talking and she yelled “no one can hear you” but I watched it live and I could hear Vance clearly picked up by Brennan’s own mike. The CBS anchors looked like fools, and Vance came across as the hero. That moment alone will go down in TV debate history.

Vance was brilliant on substance. He said the solution to school shootings is to improve security at the schools rather than take away guns from law-abiding citizens. He said the Minnesota law allowing abortions in the ninth month and killing of children who survived an attempted abortion was “fundamentally barbaric.” Walz offered a lame defense of the Minnesota abortion law. Vance shot back, “I asked for an answer, and you gave me a slogan.”

Vance made it clear that a Trump administration would support fertility treatments, give pregnant women more options and let each state decide how to handle the issue. (The same evening of the debate Trump said he would veto a national abortion ban. That takes that issue off the table).

Vance explained that Trump’s tariffs would end imports from countries that use “slave labor.” At this point, Walz was nonplussed and looked like a deer in the headlights.

Vance was brilliant on the failings of so-called experts. He said they were wrong about offshoring jobs, wrong about cheap imports and wrong about Big Pharma and Big Tech. Again, Vance urged “common sense” solutions instead of relying on experts. Most Americans certainly agree.

Also, Vance managed to work in the word “weird” twice in referring to Walz’s policies. That was a nice turnaround from the early stage of the campaign when Walz tried to call Republicans weird.

Walz wasted his chance in the closing statement by using platitudes like “joy” and not saying much beyond “vote for Kamala Harris.” Vance made brilliant use of his time by discussing core issues like inflation, housing shortages, fentanyl imports and more and laying them all at the feet of Harris and Walz. That was much more in touch with everyday Americans.

One interesting sidelight is that both Vance and Walz were energetic and fully engaged. This has the unintended side effect of showing just how vapid Kamala Harris is since she could not have survived on that debate stage and still refuses to take reporters’ questions except with teleprompters in tightly controlled circumstances. Walz’s level of engagement did Kamala no favors in comparison.

Bottom line: a convincing win for JD Vance. This should start to show up in polling results in the days ahead.

Democrat efforts to steal the 2020 presidential election are very well documented. In key states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, requirements that mail-in ballots have signatures on the ballot and the envelope that could be compared were ignored. Other mail-in ballots were discarded after supposedly being “counted” so that no paper trail existed.

Ballot harvesting from assisted living facilities and apartment buildings was conducted with no verification that any of the residents actually filled in their ballots. Other supposed mail-in ballots appeared without creases (meaning they had never been mailed) with 95-1 pro-Biden ratios (statistically impossible).

A “water leak” caused an evacuation of a large vote counting center in Atlanta so that poll watchers were ejected while the counting went on without supervision.

Mark Zuckerberg and his wife donated hundreds of millions of dollars to assist communities with vote-counting efforts but the money went overwhelmingly to Democratic districts.

It took all of that and more for Biden to eke out a narrow victory. The idea that the courts rejected the voter fraud claims is false. The courts refused to hear the cases based on procedural grounds such as standing, venue, jurisdiction and laches (waiting too long to bring the claim). That’s quite different from reaching the merits of the claims, which was never done.

This Time it Could Be Worse

After pulling out all the stops to narrowly win in 2020, I’m expecting Democrats to dig even deeper into their bag of tricks to steal this election.

And this time will be even worse…

Of course, the mainstream media will continue to lie. At this point, they’re just state propaganda. Not much different than what happens in North Korea or Russia.

The problem for them is that millions of Americans are waking up to that reality. In fact, a recent survey showed that 60% of likely voters believe “the media are truly the enemy of the people.” They’ve lied so much in the last few years that most people don’t believe them anymore.

And yes, big tech will continue to censor conservatives and any stories that might hurt Biden. But thanks to Elon Musk, this time we have X, a platform that actually respects free speech. So now millions of Americans have access to the truth.

Thankfully, the Republicans have improved their game this time around. They have over 500 lawyers on call to deal in real-time with fraud allegations, there is no pandemic excuse to deny poll watchers a chance to do their jobs and they’re getting better at ballot harvesting from their own districts.

This has forced the Democrats to resort to even more desperate techniques to steal the 2024 election.

Wha’ts Up the Dem’s Sleeve?

One plan is to declare Trump an “insurrectionist” on January 6, 2025, so that his Electoral Votes can be disqualified even if he won the most on Election Day. To back up their January 6^th plan, the Department of Homeland Security, (the same people who opened the border) has put the Secret Service in charge of the Electoral College vote count.

This means if Republicans object to certain Electoral Votes on the day they are counted in the Capitol Building (a perfectly legitimate process) the Secret Service can act as goon squads to suppress any objections to “overturn” the election by “election deniers.”

Now you may ask yourself, how is this even possible? Allow me to explain…

Assume Trump wins the election on November 5 (likely in my view). Also, assume the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in that election. The Electoral College votes are certified by the states on December 8 and then sent to Congress for a final count.

The new Congress is sworn in on January 5, 2025. The Electoral College votes are counted on January 6, 2025. The new president is not scheduled to be sworn in until January 20, 2025.

Sometime between being sworn in and counting the Electoral College votes, the new Democrat House of Representatives could pass a resolution stating that Trump is an insurrectionist and is disqualified from becoming president.

The Supreme Court left the door open to such a resolution. At that point, the House could refuse to count any Electoral College votes for Trump. In the final count, Trump would get zero votes and Kamala Harris would have less than the 270 votes needed to become president.

At that point, the selection of a president would be thrown to the floor of the House (as happened in 1800 and 1826) and the House members voting not as individuals but as state delegations would choose the president. Trump would not be eligible in this scenario, but a Republican would be the likely winner because Republicans control more state delegations even as the Democrats have more individual votes.

There seem to be no limits on the lengths to which progressives, radicals and their lawfare enablers will go to destroy their political opponents.

They are terrified that Trump will be reelected. That’s why they will do everything in their power to stop him from being sworn in again next January and create chaos in the streets.

But you aren’t helpless as an investor. That’s why subscribing to Strategic Intelligence is so important. We will help guide you through the minefields of this election season and beyond to both protect and grow your wealth.

That’s why I prepared this special report with an investment that’s guaranteed to go up when everything else goes down. Click here to view it now.